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» Ten Biggies for '10 |
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Ten Biggies for '10
written by West TX Bengal Fan
The dullness of mid-offseason is palpable. You're trying to think of anything that can jump start the discussion of football. I'm reaching deep here to summarize some thoughts about where we are and where we might go in the next 8-9 months. What are the Top 10 issues that affect continued improvement for the Bengal franchise from 2009 to 2010?
10. Health -- finally!
The last two seasons have been a nightmare in the training room. Because the depth improved greatly in 2009 from 2008 and because the numbers of players on IR did not reach into the 20's (as they did in '08), the team managed to close out '09 without total collapse even though there was a definite depletion in numbers and quality. With some luck (I'll call it "luck" for want of a better description), the team can sidestep the major losses that would derail hopes of success. The improving depth should help to limit this factor, but there are still critical positions (e.g., QB, FB, RB) that are low on depth and could generate serious issues if a key player were to go down.
9. Big Defensive Plays / Takeaways
Simply stated, the #4 unit goes to #1 if it can get the Takeway/Giveaway differential from about 0 to about +1 or better. That probably takes a 10-6 record to 13-3 or 14-2 as well.
8. Success from "Unknowns"
Every championship run has key players emerge from nowhere to make key contributions. This year we've got interesting potentials in this category including:
* FB Fui Vakapuna -- very athletic player who has had a year of seasoning and apparently is the heir apparent to the FB throne
* OT Andre Smith -- this wouldn't be a surprise to me, but this guy is one of the most dominating collegiate OTs in the past decade and has essentially been overlooked (if not castoff) by national and local commentators; when this guy gets going, look out
* TEs Jermaine Gresham/Chase Coffman -- if the Bengal playbook suddenly wants to throw the ball to the TE 5-6 times per game, the whole look of this Offense changes
* Mystery RB -- expect the team to start with the same three RBs as last year (Benson, Scott, Leonard) and expect somebody else to arrive and make contributions before all is said and done
* #3 WR -- who will emerge, how will he be utilized & what will he achieve? With the support of a decent O, great QB and balanced receivers, any number of guys (Matt Jones, Caldwell, Shipley...maybe even Simpson) could surprise
* Adam Jones -- what some are overlooking is what Jones might accomplish on STs in coverage roles; he has the speed, quickness and athleticism to neutralize players like Josh Cribbs; and, of course, he could be a huge surprise as a RS and/or at CB -- there is a lot of untapped potential here
* A Safety -- somebody will emerge from the pack of FAs (Wilson, Willingham, Miles, Evans, Murray, Nelson) to be a major contributor on D and STs
* Keith Rivers -- I'd call this a make-or-break year for a guy with all the tools to be a difference maker; he needs to generate big stops and turnovers to make his impact and justify his top 10 pick and salary; he's already a top tackler but now needs to become truly relevant
* Michael Johnson -- if I didn't know any better, I'd say that FitzGerald and Zimmer have something scary up their sleeves with this guy
7. Restoration of the Passing Game
Yards per game and yards per attempt need to both improve dramatically for the 2010 Bengals to have any chance to be a playoff success. This is a passing league, and it is difficult to win games consistently by running and playing tough D. That worked in 2009 against a fairly weak schedule, but the additions of Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe & Jerome Gresham combined with the hopefully improved performances of Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson and/or Chase Coffman will be required in some formula to achieve this goal. Let me point out that the above list of additions and hopeful improvements is not a pipe dream -- this could surpass everyone's wildest dreams.
6. Special Teams Improvement
Everyone and his brother talks about the "three phases of the game," yet this talk often tails off once the regular season begins. The Bengals had success on STs early in the Lewis tenure but now have lost that edge. Despite excellent return success from rookies Quan Cosby and Bernard Scott in 2009, the coverage teams and kickers were all in the lower half of the league. With marked improvement in depth, speed and youth in the current roster, coverage teams should be better. Kevin Huber has had a season to get used to the length, intensity and style of the NFL and so should show improvement in all phases of his game. The placekicking and kickoff games remain a mystery. Although Shayne Graham was criticized for choking on his big kick attempts, he was generally a dependable kicker inside of 45 yards over his career as a Bengal -- that may be difficult to reprise right away with either of the current two options (Mike Nugent & Dave Rayner). Since Graham had one of the weaker kickoff legs in the league, that aspect of the game doesn't figure to get much worse.
5. Pass Rush Success
Since Zimmer has put so many marbles on the line in this regard, the success must come now. Expectations are high with Geathers & Odom returning to full health; Fanene & Michael Johnson showing success in the second half of 2009; the team acquiring more push from inside (Atkins & Dunlap, more coverage ability on the corners (Ghee & Adam Jones), more experience from OLBs (Rivers & Maualuga) and another year of seasoning from Defensive guru Mike Zimmer. The team must get around 3 sacks per game in this scheme to make it work.
4. Moving the OL to the Next Level
In 2009 the OL was somewhere in the middle of the pack with respect to overall performance. Given that there was only one starter returning to his position from 2008 and that the team did at times start three prior CFA players (Livings, Cook, Roland), this was a remarkable accomplishment. However, now that all starters are back while prior Outland Award winner Andre Smith should be ready to go, a lot more is expected. With two upper tier OTs and two excellent backups, the number of edge sacks allowed should be minimal. With veterans returning at the interior OL spots along with a top unit of RBs, the average yards per carry need to improve as well. No matter how dominant the Defense might become in 2010, the success of the team will hinge on a more dominant OL -- it has always been that way here.
3. Unleashing of the Hounds
How else can we term the overall failure of the Bengal franchise in 42 prior seasons to:
* Go to back-to-back playoffs in non-strike seasons?
* Illustrate consistent, season-long dominance in all phases of the game?
* Strike fear in the minds of opponents and respect from the rest of the league?
* Win a Super Bowl?
To move past these barriers, the franchise needs to the combination of luck and skill that any team summons to become great. The "luck" often comes, however, on the heels of hard work and focus. The skill comes from the union of determination, commitment and hard labor at a team level. This hasn't been seen in Cincinnati since the era of Sam Wyche, but the combined leadership from Lewis, Zimmer & Co. finally has that similar smell. With the excellent roster depth and consistent, high-grade starting skill the team has currently assembled, this all is within reach. Now there need not be any further excuses -- hard schedules, injuries and bad luck are items that hold down lesser teams.
2. Long-Term Leadership Plan
To be realistic in this league, you must have this near the top of the chart. Every successful team has a successful leadership council. You don't necessarily have to have a dominant head coach per the X's and O's (e.g., NYG's Tom Coughlin), but you have to have a strong group of coaching talent to compete. You don't have to have a world class owner (e.g., NO's Tom Benson; AZ's Bill Bidwill), but you do have to show some prowess over time in the front office process. The Bengals have Marvin Lewis, who is starting his 8th season as head coach. He really has overcome all odds in managing an overall winning regular season record (56-55-1) in Mike Brown dominated Cincinnati over 7 seasons following the first dozen post-PB seasons of 53-139 (0.276). Six wins in 2010 would make Lewis the all-time winningest coach in Bengal regular season history; 9 wins would make him the all-time winningest coach, period (regular and post-season wins included). For the first time in a long time, the rest of the league is talking about Cincinnati position coaches and coordinators. Mike Zimmer has taken the Defense to 4th overall in the league from 27th two years ago. Paul Alexander is getting a lot of kudos for his successful work with a group of OL dominated in numbers by undrafted free agent players. LBs coach Jeff FitzGerald is highly regarded around the league for his prior success with the Ravens. DB coaches Kevin Coyle and Louie Cioffi are getting praise for their development of dominant play from CBs Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. And RBs coach Jim Alexander is still highly recognized for him numerous successful RB projects and his status as the elder statesman of assistant coaches in the NFL. That is a lot to like right how. However, there is emerging an issue with the future of Marvin Lewis and how that might shape the leadership council as this season progresses. Despite the antiquated methods of the Mike Brown ownership, Lewis has been able to get players to focus on the team concept while looking past minor league practices such as the failure to hire a GM and the lack of an on-site indoor practice bubble for inclement weather. If the season were to progress without an answer to Lewis' future, the cohesion of this franchise might suffer. It is my secret hope that Lewis' hidden plan is to break the Bengals coaching records in 2010 and then retire into the GM position while promoting Mike Zimmer to head coach. Anything less than this (or the re-hiring of Lewis as head coach for a few more seasons) is a major blunder by the Mike Brown management group which now must weigh how to delegate more power to those who have brought heightened success to the organization.
1. QB Play
This is the NFL, so don't kid yourself. You just don't win much without dominating QB play.
-- Sub-question #1 here: Was Palmer dominant in 2009? I think he actually was for most of the season. If you look at each game and consider the circumstances against his output, you quickly notice that he usually succeeded in the overall task. In 2009, however, the overall task often involved handing off, managing the clock, controlling the ball and hitting a few key passes. That was the offensive formula the Bengals utilized in '09 to turn things around from 4-11-1 to 10-6. And that formula worked even though it was quite boring at times. Looking at the Conference championship games and the starting QBs over the past three years:
* 2009-10: AFC - NYJ (M Sanchez) @ Indy (P Manning); NFC - Minn (B Favre) @ NO (D Brees)
* 2008-09: AFC - Balt (J Flacco) @ Pitt (B Roethlisberger); NFC - Phi (D McNabb) @ AZ (K Warner)
* 2007-08: AFC - SD (P Rivers) @ NE (T Brady); NFC - NYG (E Manning) @ GB (B Favre)
one will notice that there are 11 different QBs represented (Brett Favre appears twice albeit for two different teams). There are different formulas for success on this list (e.g., young QB/game management -- Sanchez & Flacco; hot QB/error minimizing -- Rivers & E Manning; All-Pros carrying the team -- P Manning, Favre, Brees, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Warner & Brady), but all QBs played well in taking their teams deep into the Playoffs. Palmer is good enough to at least be the "hot QB minimizing errors" while a dominating season may be enough to restore him as one of the game's "All-Pros carrying his team." Hopefully the Bengals will have enough offensive balance now that he can be more in the style of Drew Brees (i.e., mixed offensive attack) than in that of Peyton Manning (i.e., pass well or lose).
-- Sub-Question #2 here: Was Palmer healthy in 2009 / Can Palmer be healthy enough to dominate in 2010? The first follow up question is to ask whether the proceeding questions are related. Palmer did suffer the ankle injury early in the 2009 pre-season (NO game) and then had the ligament sprain to the left thumb in mid-season (Chi game). However, did the arm strength falter over the course of the 2009 season? The popular argument coming from the Peter Kings & Ron Jaworskis is that Palmer's elbow still is not 100% from the 2008 injury and that this reduces the velocity, accuracy and distance in his throws. If that is still true this spring, then Antonio Bryant has been lying like hell in his post-OTA practice comments. I can say that from what I saw in 2009 that Palmer didn't appear to be throwing his long ball as deep or as accurate as he did earlier in his career. Palmer also appeared to struggle at times (e.g., NYJ playoff game) with his accuracy but at other times (e.g., numerous end of game big plays) was very accurate. But there also is a viable counter-argument by Palmer defenders that the Bengal WR corps made it difficult for him to throw deep or consistently high percentage in the second half of the 2010 season. In the end I like to point out that Carson Palmer is regarded as one of the high-end NFL players with respect to moral fiber -- and I would like to think that he would not continue to play with a major physical flaw (elbow) if the problem could be reasonably corrected by a surgical procedure (i.e., Tommy John surgery). In the end this question regarding his arm health should be one of the great mysteries to be uncovered over the course of the 2010 season and will likely determine the relative success of the team over the course of the next few seasons as well.
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